On Tuesday night, massive underdogs Uruguay take on a Dutch team that few except ESPN’s Alexi Lalas believed would make an impact at this tournament. The prize? A coveted spot in the 2010 FIFA World Cup Final, perhaps the biggest and most important match in the game’s calendar.
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The Uruguayans remain rank outsiders, despite their two World Cup wins in 1930 and 1950, and I challenge a single pundit or even non-Uruguayan fan to prove that they predicted this small nation of just 3.3 million would progress so far. But the South Americans have proved they belong with the world’s best teams, holding France to a 0-0 draw before thrashing hosts South Africa 3-0, beating Mexico and South Korea by a single goal, and (with ever so much controversy) cruelly eliminating Ghana on penalty kicks during their miraculous run to the semis. Nevertheless, few believe the miracle can continue past the Dutch, who are arguably the first elite team that the plucky Uruguayans have had to face (not many would count the horrendous French as a top-class team these days, given that they were too busy fighting with each other and their coach to bother playing defense or scoring goals).
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The biggest problem facing Uruguay is a defensive injury/suspension crisis that leaves wily old coach Oscar Tabarez with few options to choose from. Maximiliano Perez is the only starter who is 100% ready to play. He will take up his usual place on the right side of defense. In the center, inspirational captain Diego Lugano, who plays his club football with Fenerbahce of Turkey, faces a battle to be fit in time for kick-off. Lugano, who was in tears after he was substituted because of injury in the quarterfinal match against Ghana, is a tall and commanding figure whose presence would be sorely missed. Even worse is the likely absence of the injured Godin, a regular with Villareal of Spain, who has been Uruguay’s best defender, covering brilliantly for all his teammates and marking his opponents’ strikers out of the match.
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In their place, we will likely see Mauricio Victorino and Andres Scotti, a pair who, despite playing their club football in the little-heralded Chilean league, have not looked out of their depth at this tournament (bar one unfortunate incident when Scotti inadvertently chipped his own ’keeper in an attempt to tackle Ghana’s bullish Asamoah Gyan). Jorge Fucile, the normal starter on the left, is suspended for this one. Martin Caceres, the versatile 23 year old defender/midfielder, will likely start in his stead. Caceres is viewed in some circles as one of the game’s most promising young defenders but a disastrous season with Barcelona tarnished his reputation. He improved with Juventus of Turin this past season but a World Cup semifinal would be the perfect stage to prove his doubters wrong. Unfortunately, Caceres is not accustomed to playing on the left, usually slotting in at center-back or on the right, and he will surely be extremely nervous to line up against Holland’s Arjen Robben, one of the trickiest wingers in the game.
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After his poor performance against Ghana, look for Alvaro Fernandez to be dropped with the combative Diego Perez stepping in on the right and Alvaro Pereira playing opposite on the left. Arevalo will keep his spot in the center despite a disappointing display against Ghana and will be joined by Napoli’s talented holding midfielder Walter Gargano, surprisingly making his first start of the tournament. Up front, of course, is the talismanic Diego Forlan, who will be central to Uruguay’s hopes, both as playmaker and goal-scorer-in-chief. Partnering him will be young Edinson Cavani of Palermo (though perhaps not for much longer as a switch to Juventus is being discussed in the press). He will have big boots to fill as he replaces top-scorer Luis Suarez, suspended after his infamous handball against Ghana. Between the posts, as always, is baby-faced Muslera, the 23 year old who plays with Lazio of Rome and acquitted himself brilliantly in the penalty shoot-out against Ghana.
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The Dutch boast an array of better-known players. Their attacking quarter will surely give the makeshift Uruguyuan defense absolute fits. It boasts three of the most talented forward players in the game today: striker Robin van Persie of Arsenal, a predatory and skillful finisher who seems certain to start despite a possibly broken left hand; playmaker Wesley Sneijder, who has scored four goals so far in this World Cup and had the honor of lifting the coveted Champion’s League trophy with Inter last season; and, on the right wing, the often unstoppable Arjen Robben of Bayern Munich. Defenders always know what he is going to do: run at them with the ball before cutting inside and looking to shoot or cross with his favored left foot. But just because the defense knows what’s coming, it doesn’t make him any easier to stop. Look for one of Uruguay’s midfielders to constantly track back and help out young Caceres. Rounding out the fabulous foursome is Dirk Kuyt of Liverpool, a player sometimes mocked for his lack of skill and penchant for fluffing easy chances. But his hard work and industry have deservedly captured him a place in the Dutch starting eleven at the expense of Real Madrid’s more lackadaisical Rafael van der Vaart, who usually comes off the bench.
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The defense is a potential weakness although, except for one moment of total chaos, it held its own against Brazil’s highly-rated attackers. Van der Wiel, who looked out of his depth anyway, is suspended so Boularhrouz, a fearsome player nicknamed “The Cannibal,” will probably step in on the right. In the center, young Johnny Heitinga of Everton is a sure starter. If he’s fit, Joris Mathijsen will join him. But if the Hamburg defender is unable to participate, look for the experienced Andre Ooijer to deputize, as he did quite ably against Brazil. On the left is Holland’s elder statesman at 35 years of age, the well-travelled captain Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Gio, as his jersey has it with greater brevity, played for much of his career as an attacking midfielder before switching to left-back in the fabulous Barcelona team of Ronaldinho, a position he has since made his own for the national team.
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Anchoring the midfield is Bayern’s Mark van Bommel, coach Bert van Marwijk’s son-in-law. To his critics, van Bommel is the dirtiest player in the game, someone who would resort to any foul, no matter how unprofessional, to break up the rhythm of his opponent’s game. To his admirers, he is simply a player who will do whatever it takes to win. Either way, he is a formidable force to be reckoned with and Uruguay’s attackers will have their hands full trying to bypass this fearsome defensive shield. Nigel de Jong is suspended so de Zeeuw or Schaars will start in his place though it is possible van Marwijk will opt for a change of formation and include van der Vaart in a central role or even Milan’s lanky striker Klaas Jan Huntelaar up front next to RvP. The keeper is Stekelenburg of Ajax, no van der Saar but certainly a competent replacement.
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Holland, 4-2-3-1: Stekelenburg; Boularhrouz, Heitinga, Mathijsen/Ooijer, van Bronckhorst/ van Bommel, de Zeeuw/Schaars; Kuyt, Sneijder, Robben; van Persie
Uruguay, 4-4-2: Muslera, M. Pereira, Lugano/Scotti, Victorino, Caceres; Perez, Gargano, Avelaro, A. Pereira; Forlan, Cavani
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My heart says Uruguay—though some have unfairly labeled them a side of cheaters for Suarez’s absolutely necessary handball—but my head says Holland. I have taken a real dislike to the Dutch since this tournament began. I find their style—except for the brilliance of Sneijder and Robben—predictable and pedestrian while the attitudes of the violent van Bommel and the obnoxious van Persie, who loudly complained to the press after being substituted during the second-round game against Slovakia, are hardly endearing to the neutral. Their teamwork is commendable but this year’s Oranje are a hideous stain on the legacies of Michels and Cruyff and their brilliant era of “Total Football.” They are a cautious and unadventurous side but their strategy looks like it will take them to the final. When I watch them play, I am always reminded of the immortal words of Michael Caine in Goldmember, the third installment of the still-hilarious Austin Powers series: “There are only two things I can’t stand in this world: People who are intolerant of other peoples’ cultures….and the DUTCH!” Perhaps I am being unfair on Holland but it is in their power to prove me wrong against Uruguay with a display of attacking soccer. I doubt we will see it. Instead, as the blogger Paul Morrissey has it on 101greatgoals.com, I fear we are in for another display of “Totally Awful Football.”