Spain take on Germany this Wednesday in a World Cup semifinal that is a rematch of the 2008 European Championship final. Spain won that game 1-0, thoroughly outplaying Joegi Loew’s side, on a goal by their star forward Fernando Torres. This time around, Torres seems less likely to get on the score-sheet. Coming off double knee surgery in April, the Liverpool striker has looked far from his best, his touch heavy and his scoring instincts dull.
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In fact, there is talk in the press that Spain’s walrus-mustachioed coach Vicente del Bosque is considering dropping Torres from the starting line-up. He has three options to choose from: the skillful young winger David Silva, newly of Manchester City, a key player in Spain’s European triumph two years and a starter in this World Cup before being dropped after the surprising 1-0 opening game loss at the boots of the hard-tackling Swiss. He would add width to a sometimes Spanish attack and put pressure on Germany captain Phillip Lahm, a fine full-back but one who lacks pace and looks better going forward than defending his flank. Silva’s addition would surely limit the German’s dangerous forays down the wing.
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Another option is Arsenal’s talismanic Cesc Fabregas, a stellar attacking midfielder constantly linked with a move back to his home-town club Barcelona. Fabregas has become Spain’s super-sub though many, especially his English fans, believe he should start. For Spain, the young Catalan usually plays right behind the striker, playing balls in behind the defense for Villa or Torres to finish off and making his own dangerous runs into the box. Recent reports, however, suggest that he has picked up a leg injury and will miss the game completely. How many of these pre-match injury reports are misinformation deliberately spread by the coaches and their staff is anybody’s guess. A third option, perhaps the least likely, is Athletic Bilbao’s strong striker Fernando Llorente, a player with limited international experience but one whose physical style might be valuable against a muscular German defense.
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The midfield is more settled. The delightful little Iniesta has the free role, drifting from wing to wing, sometimes setting up camp in the center, at other times dropping deep to collect the ball and spring forward, always looking to beguile defenders with his sudden acceleration and sublime trickery and set himself and his teammates up for a shot at goal. Behind him are the Catalan Xavi of Barcelona and the Basque Xabi Alonso of Real Madrid. Xavi provides the inspiration and the passes that keep Spain ticking. With the decline of Italy’s Pirlo, he stands alone as the last of the old-fashioned, deep-lying midfield playmakers, able to deliver the ball forward on a dime. Alonso is another accomplished passer of the ball, especially from long range, although the erratic flight of the Jabulani seems to have dampened his confidence in this sort of play. He provides steel and aerial ability and looks to protect the back four before getting forward.
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The final piece in Spain’s midfield puzzle is the youngster Sergio Busquets. It has always been a shock to me that Busquets has held down a consistent starting place both for Barcelona and for his national team. Yes, at just 21, his maturity and composure are impressive. He takes up space well, protects the defense, and is adept at holding onto the ball and laying it off to his more talented midfield teammates (though usually they stand a very short distance away). But he seems to me an extremely limited player, timid when going forward and not especially physical or strong in the tackle or in the air, a surprise given his 6 foot 2 frame. I was especially displeased by his shameful play-acting in the semifinal of this year’s Champion’s League semifinal against Inter where he successfully got Thiago Motta sent off. But, in this case, I have to defer to the judgment of the brilliant Pep Guardiola, his coach at Barca, and his minder at the national level, del Bosque. Presumably, they know just a little bit more about the game than I.
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Up front, of course, is David Villa, a player who needs little introduction. Barcelona just paid Valencia 47.5 million dollars for the speedy Asturian striker. He looks worth every penny. Villa has scored an incredible 43 goals in 63 international matches, including five so far at this World Cup, and stands just one short of Raul Gonzalez’s all-time record. He will require constant attention from the German defense. In goal, as always, is the captain Iker Casillas. Real’s ‘keeper is always at the top of any list of the best in the business. His sprawling save of Cardozo’s penalty in the last match against Paraguay was superb. Nevertheless, he has spilled a couple of seemingly straightforward shots so far during this tournament and flapped at a number of crosses. Look for Germany to test him with long-range efforts and balls pumped into the box.
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Spain’s defense is competent but not outstanding. Their limitations are usually papered over by the midfield’s habit of rarely giving up possession. Against Paraguay they were caught out numerous times on the counter, a specialty of this German team. Anchoring the unit is Barcelona’s captain, the shaggy-haired center-back Carles Puyol. He has lost a step over the years but his experience and vocal authority make him a key figure for Spain. Next to him is Gerard Pique, a club teammate, good in the air, strong in the tackle, and competent on the ball. However, he seemed quite clumsy against Paraguay and stumbled out of position numerous times before conceding an unnecessary penalty to Cardozo, dragging down the tall striker by the arm after failing to track his simple run on a corner kick. The clever German attackers will certainly look to dribble at him and draw him out of defense and into the midfield.
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At right back is Sergio Ramos of Real Madrid, perhaps, after Brazil’s Maicon, the game’s best in that position. He is tall, strong and fast, equally at home at the back as surging forward down the wing to feed the strikers. He has become a crucial part of Spain’s attack but his contributions in that department will probably limited by the presence of the dangerous Podolski, who will look to exploit any space Ramos is foolish enough to leave behind. On the left is Joan Capdevila of Villareal, a player traditionally targeted as the weakest of the Spanish back four. In over two years as a starter this reputation has not been justified though he is certainly no international standout, a competent but not spectacular full-back.
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The Spanish love to control possession and run the match at their tempo. The Germans, who seem to have mastered the art of the counterattack, will probably not object too strongly to this, though we can expect them to harry Xavi and Iniesta in an effort to starve Villa of service. Leading this effort will be one of the finds of the tournament, Sami Khedira, though I am sure his imperious play in front of the defense will come as no surprise to his club Stuttgart. Physical and commanding, young Khedira has also shown a willingness to get forward and support the attack. A more than able replacement for the injured Michael Ballack and, arguably, a much more mobile force than the captain, who has slowed down considerably with age. Partnering him in the middle is Bayern Munich’s Bastian Schweinsteiger, perhaps one of the best players in the tournament so far. The German midfielder plays a box-to-box game and provides the grit and passing that propel his team forward. Serving as the playmaker is another young gem, Werder Bremen’s Mesut Oezil. His close control and vision seem destined to take him to one of the major clubs of Europe over the next few years. His volleyed goal against Ghana in the group stages was one of this World Cup’s best.
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Up front is Miroslav Klose, at 32 a wise old gray head in this incredibly youthful German team. He is one away from tying Ronaldo’s all-time World Cup record of 15 and seems likely to get it, though he has publicly stated the overall trophy means much more to him than any silly scoring record. Though not particularly talented in any one department, Klose is strong and his positioning is top-class. He will find any hole in a defense and exploit it to the maximum. Without service, however, Klose is useless. Lukas Podolski, the troubled former teenage talent, seems to have matured after leaving the bright lights of Munich for his hometown club of Koln. He is Klose’s chief assistant, cutting in brilliantly from the left to feed his fellow Germano-Pole and more than capable of scoring himself. The right provides more of a problem.
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Normally, the starter is Thomas Mueller, Bayern’s newly minted star and Germany’s top scorer in South Africa . At only 20, Mueller found himself playing in the third division just last spring but his obvious talent has made him untouchable for both club and country. Unfortunately, he is suspended for this one. It is unclear who coach Loew will spring for in his place. Toni Kroos, another fresh-faced 20 year old, had a solid season at Leverkusen on loan from Bayern and has been a key contributor to the German youth teams. The tiny Pole Trochowski is another option while naturalized Brazilian striker Cacau could find himself fielded out of position on the wing if he recovers in time from injury.
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The defense is more settled but perhaps Germany’s most vulnerable area. I have criticized Mertesacker and Friedrich in the past, doubting their ability to cope with Tevez, Messi et al. They more than proved me wrong (and yet my suspicion is this had more to do with Maradona’s ineffective tactics than their own brilliance). So, at the risk of looking foolish once again, I predict that Villa will give them a 90-minute headache. If they can withstand Spain’s clever through balls and the pace of Villa, then my hat is off to them as the best center-back pairing at the tournament. Until then, I remain skeptical not just of them but even more so of left-back Boateng, who did well to handle di Maria in the quarter-final but still seems inexperienced for this level. Marcell Jansen is a possibility to start here in his place. Del Bosque is a better coach than Maradona and I believe that Spain’s attackers will do a much better job of unsettling the German backline than Argentina’s super-stars, who clearly left their shooting boots back at the hotel. On the right, Lahm is a player of infinite experience who nevertheless can sometimes get caught out defensively. Always a dangerous offensive weapon going forward. Between the sticks is Neuer, another youngster, perhaps the only one in Germany’s line-up who plays his age. Look for Spain to test him early and often, if they can figure out how to keep the Jabulani from soaring over the crossbar.
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Spain 4-3-2-1: Casillas; Ramos, Puyol, Pique, Capdevila; Busquets, Xabi Alonso, Xavi;
Silva, Iniesta; Villa
Germany 4-1-2-3: Neuer; Lahm, Mertesacker, Friedrich, Boateng/Jansen; Khedira,; Schweinsteiger, Oezil; Kroos, Klose, Podolski
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How times have changed from just two years ago. Spain, especially Torres, no longer look invincible. Their quick passing game has slowed down considerably. They look far weaker than the team that lifted the European Championship and have not been able to put together a fully convincing 90 minute performance so far in South Africa, except perhaps for the 3-0 defeat of Chile. Nonetheless, it is hard to bet against a team with Villa, Ramos, Xavi and Iniesta in it. Whether the other plays can hold together is another question. Germany, on the other hand, have progressed incredibly with the integration of a new generation of talented young stars. The only question mark is a slow defense that seems a class below the rest of the team. The absence of Mueller is also a huge blow. I doubt that they will be able to score another four goals, as they did so brilliantly against Argentina and England. Spain are much stronger than either of these two opponents. Even so, I think Germany have enough to take it. Either way, I think the winner of this one will most likely lift the ultimate prize. Anything to keep the hands of the dispiriting Dutch and their ugly football away from the precious trophy!
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A Late Note from America: My friend Walter Lippincott, a true soccer fanatic, disagrees with my assessment of the Dutch and adds:
Tomorrow’s game should have been the final of the WC. All in all it has been one of the most enjoyable World Cup’s in sometime. The German team has played better than any team I can remember so far- but great teams have been beaten in the finals (like the Dutch in ‘74 and ‘78 and the French in ‘86).
A crime that I missed Holland’s thrilling 3-2 victory over Uruguay tonight but I was, most unfortunately, on a plane and it would have cost over 500 dollars to rebook my ticket. If I had the money, I probably would have paid. I’ll check the highlights to see if the Dutch proved me wrong. 3 goals sounds promising but high-scoring doesn’t necessarily mean good football.