When William Shakespeare wrote, “Parting is such sweet sorrow,” he was clearly writing about the final
Indy Sportsbook installment of the school year. Fittingly, for this last issue, we’ll be reviewing top bets for the end of league football around the world. How you will get through the next four months without our picks every week, we’re not sure. But for one last time this school year, we’ll be overly analyzing a league table to perhaps not-so-accurately predict who will be crowned the champions in a couple of weeks.
When we last predicted the Champions League round of 16, we placed way too much faith in the underdogs. In an underwhelming round with few goals, the favorites dominated, winning seven of the eight games. The only upset occurred when Atletico Madrid beat Inter Milan, which was an exciting upset we had predicted. Overall, the Sportsbook performed fairly average, getting five of the eight games, but like for all Harvard students, getting a 62.5% is simply unacceptable. But, the final is worth 30% of the grade, and we’ve been given a shot at redeeming our 4.0 by predicting domestic league and Champions League winners.
While many major leagues have already been decided, like the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A, some teams will be fighting until the very last match day of the season before knowing their fate. In recent years, Liverpool and Manchester City have battled in the Premier League, amassing record-breaking numbers of points and pushing each other for the trophy until the final minute of the last game. With the addition of Arsenal into the mix this year, it’s looking as competitive as ever. These high-stakes final games are what make the Prem one of the most popular and watched leagues in the world.
From the start, this year has been a three-horse race. While teams like Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa have looked to challenge for the title at moments, in the end, the squad depth and quality of the Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool teams have set them apart from the rest. As it stands, Arsenal leads the way with 80 points, while Manchester City follows with 79 and Liverpool with 75. Fourth place Aston Villa is some ways away with 67 and will be more focused on retaining the fourth and last UEFA Champions League spot.
With four games to go and a possible 12 points to be achieved, most teams’ fates are quickly falling out of their own hands. The defending champions, Manchester City, are the clear favorites. At -360 odds with a favorable run in playing three bottom-half teams, Manchester City is the only team that truly controls its own destiny. After a dominant season marked by homegrown star Phil Foden cementing himself as a Ballon d’Or favorite and Erling Halland looking to retain his golden boot, the champions look far from slowing down. Their job is simple, and the betting odds reflect it: win the last four games of the season and break history by being the first team to win the title in four consecutive seasons.
Arsenal currently finds itself in first place, and much like an elephant on a tree, nobody knows how it got there, but everybody knows it will fall down. They currently sit as second favorites (+230) and are City’s only real competition. After their recent Champions League defeat to German giants Bayern Munchen, Arsenal’s sole focus is on league play. Still, their title hopes look doubtful. With a North London derby against Spurs and a penultimate match against a sometimes-good Manchester United team, Arsenal has to be perfect and rely on City dropping points to lift the trophy on the final day.
Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp will look back at this season as a missed opportunity. Plagued with injuries and inconsistent performances from their goalscorers, a poor run of form late in the season leaves Liverpool essentially out of the title race. At +5000 odds, five points behind and having by far the most difficult run-in of games, it would be nearly impossible for Liverpool to send off Jurgen Klopp with a second premier league trophy in his last season with the club. After being knocked out of every competition and losing three of their last five games, even +5000 odds don’t look worth the gamble.
If you prefer betting on individual player stats and have no interest in keeping track of only three teams simultaneously, look no further than the top scorer category this year. The winner last year, Erling Haaland, is currently tied for first, with Chelsea’s Cole Palmer scoring 20 league goals each. Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is close behind with 19 goals, edging out Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke and Newcastle’s Alexander Isak with 18, and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah with 17 goals on the season.
We at the Indy Sportsbook are big fans of Watkins at +700. Haaland’s questionable fitness and lack of scoring in big games makes him a less fun, obvious choice that we simply cannot recommend. Palmer has been a standout performer for Chelsea this year, and the 20-year-old will look to cap off an unimpressive team season with several individual awards. Watkins, in our opinion, should be awarded Premier League Player of the Season and is more than deserving of the Golden Boot. Trailing by only one goal while leading the league in assists, his recent form and overall level of play this year almost make +700 seem like a lock.
The end of the Premier League season does not mean the end of football, with the UEFA Champions League Final still left to be played in late May. The so-called best league in the world finds itself with zero semifinalists, as the last two English teams were knocked out in the quarterfinal. The final four matchup sees Real Madrid facing Bayern Munchen while Paris Saint Germain will face off against Borussia Dortmund. These historic clubs will all be competing for the ultimate prize in club football, but just who will be lifting the trophy this summer?
Real Madrid are tentatively favorites, and after seeing off Manchester City in penalty kicks, they will feel confident going into their away match against Bundesliga runner-up Bayern. After not winning their league for the first time in over ten years, Bayern is heavily relying on a Champions League trophy to mark this year as a success. A trophy will not only save their season but would also be a historic moment for star transfer Harry Kane, as he hopes to win his first-ever major trophy. For this matchup, we at the Indy Sportsbook refuse to bet against fourteen-time winners Real Madrid, and at -178 odds, we think the favorites should be trusted to get the job done. Real Madrid has already won the Spanish league and faces one of the weaker Bayern teams in recent memory.
On the other side of the bracket, German team Borussia Dortmund matches up against the French champions PSG. In the round of 16, we predicted PSG as a major upset candidate in their game with Sociedad, but since then, they have only improved. After an impressive performance coming from behind at Camp Nou, they are definitely favorites going into this tie. As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me.” Unfortunately, we could care less about this saying and still think PSG is just not that good. Kylian Mbappe is undoubtedly one of the best players in the world, but PSG’s midfield and defense are just too lackluster to compete at this stage.
The second-division English league is the title race we will be following closest to the end of the school year. A longtime favorite team, Leeds United, is in a tight automatic promotion battle with Leicester City and Ipswich Town and will need the equivalent of a 100 on the final to get an A in the class. +220 odds aren’t the worst in the world, but a major slip-up from Ipswich will be needed for Leeds fans to go into summer in a relatively good mood. As the curtains close on this season’s thrilling matches and our last issue of the Indy Sportsbook, we wish you a summer filled with successful wagers and unforgettable moments. Happy gambling, and see you next year!
Vincent Honrubia ’27 (vincenthonrubia@college.harvard.edu) will be devastated if he has to watch Championship football next year.