Fast Facts: F1 Predictions vs. Reality
Graphic by Amelie Lima
The 2025 Formula 1 season has officially reached its midpoint, and, per usual, there has been no shortage of surprises. Let’s look back on our predictions for this year’s championship, made in the Independent’s Meltdown issue before the season kicked off at the Australian Grand Prix. Here is how things have unfolded.
Constructors’ Championship Winner: McLaren
Starting strong, our first prediction was spot-on. In the 2024 battle for the Constructors’ Championship, McLaren and Ferrari were in a closely contested battle for the title, going into the last race of the season tied in points. McLaren ultimately emerged on top, and in combination with their strong performance in this year’s preseason testing, they were a safe bet to be the 2025 Constructors’ champions
In the first 12 rounds of the season, McLaren driver Oscar Piastri has driven his way to the top of the standings, achieving five wins and a total of ten podium finishes. McLaren’s second driver, Lando Norris, has competed fiercely with his teammate, following close behind with four wins and an equal number of podiums. Together, the two have amassed a total of 460 points to take a decisive lead in the Constructors’ standings, far ahead of Ferrari in second place with 222 points.
Despite a strong result in the 2024 season and promising times in testing, Ferrari has been riddled with technical issues and strategic missteps, even with seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton joining their roster. Likewise, Mercedes’ limited upgrades to this season’s car and slow development have not been able to challenge McLaren’s dominance, and Red Bull’s car performance seems to have taken a nosedive after the departure of their Chief Technology Officer, Adrian Newey. With a 200% margin over second place and clear momentum into the second half of the season, McLaren is set to achieve victory in the Constructors’ Championship.
Hamilton vs. Leclerc: Charles Leclerc
Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari after 12 successful years at Mercedes came as a shock to the entire F1 community. At the beginning of the season, viewers eagerly watched to see how the team dynamic between the multi-time championship winner Hamilton and Ferrari’s poster boy, Charles Leclerc, would unfold. Unlike teams such as Red Bull and Mercedes that clearly prioritize one driver over the other, Ferrari has maintained a strategy of keeping the peace and consistently collecting points for both drivers, especially in their pursuit of McLaren in the standings.
After preseason testing, our Sportsbook pick for which Ferrari driver would emerge on top in the standings was Charles Leclerc; thus far, it has proven true, though not by a large margin. As of the Silverstone Grand Prix, Leclerc sits fifth in the Drivers’ Championship standings with 119 points. Hamilton trails closely behind in sixth with 103 points. Leclerc shows more consistent performances across the board, with strong results in qualifying sessions as well as four podium finishes. Meanwhile, Hamilton has been vastly outpaced by his teammate and has yet to achieve a grand prix podium finish with Ferrari. As the two drivers are close in points and Hamilton continues to adjust to the SF-25, the rest of the season could go either way—but we’re sticking with Leclerc.
Australian Grand Prix Winner: Oscar Piastri
The first race of the Formula 1 season is always guaranteed to bring surprises, as each team tests out its new upgrades and drivers make their debuts. Considering his preseason testing results and his home track advantage, our pick for the winner of the season-opener Australian Grand Prix was Melbourne native Oscar Piastri. Despite qualifying in second place to start and driving at the front of the pack until Lap 44 out of 57 of the grand prix, the sudden onset of rain quickly created full wet conditions on track. As a result, both McLarens, sitting in first and second place, suffered a slide into the gravel at Turn 12.
While Lando Norris slid just slightly off the track and was able to recover his car, Piastri was sent further into the gravel, resulting in a disorganized entrance into turn 13 and beaching in the grass. Piastri was eventually able to get up and running to continue the race, but ultimately finished in a disappointing ninth place at his home race as Norris took the victory.
Most Crash Damage: Kimi Antonelli
In predicting which driver would incur the highest repair costs in the 2025 season, we acknowledge that we fell short of the target. After being promoted directly from Formula 2 to a top-performing Formula 1 team in Mercedes, the 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli made his grand prix debut at the Australian Grand Prix and was not afforded a long adjustment period in his transition to racing at the top level. It was for this reason that we chose Antonelli as our prediction for the driver to amass the most crash damage.
Thus far, the young rookie has collected a mixed bag of race results in the first half of this season, achieving six points finishes, as well as four retirements, three from crash damage. In all, his crash damage record can be considered quite moderate.
Instead, it is fellow rookie Ollie Bearman who is on track to take victory in the so-called “Destructors’ Championship.” Bearman has had multiple heavy crashes, most of which occurred in free practice sessions, with a particularly bizarre crash into the pit lane entrance during FP3 at Silverstone. Though Bearman has been more consistent during races than practice, it is safe to say that his mechanics have still been quite busy. If this pattern of practice session incidents continues, Bearman will easily top the crash damage standings.
Drivers’ Championship Winner: Max Verstappen
With four consecutive titles under his belt, Max Verstappen seemed like a logical pick for the winner of this year’s Drivers’ Championship before the start of the season. However, we did not anticipate just how dominant McLaren’s cars would prove to be. While Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris have reigned supreme in qualifying sessions and races alike, Verstappen has struggled to control his car and has described the Red Bull as “undriveable” at nearly every race this season.
Suffering from understeer and balance issues as well as difficulties handling kerbs and bumpy circuits, it has not been an easy season for the reigning world champion. Though he has managed to pull off two wins and a total of five podium finishes with a car far inferior to the McLaren, he is sitting in third place in the Drivers’ standings. Halfway through the season, McLaren seems poised to take the Drivers’ Championship win, though it will be a fierce battle to see who comes out on top. However, the shocking announcement of Red Bull Racing CEO and Team Principal Christian Horner’s termination on July 9 brings another variable into the equation. Will the promotion of Racing Bulls’ Racing Director Alan Permane to Team Principal spur new growth, or will it further Red Bull’s current decline?
Whitney Ford ’28 (wford@college.harvard.edu) is still holding out hope that Charles Leclerc will somehow win the Drivers’ Championship.