Sports gambling is one of the fastest growing industries in the country. 21 states have legalized sports betting since the beginning of 2020, and more have legislature in place to do so. This creates an influx of new sports bettors that flock both to in-person sportsbooks, but also sports gambling websites such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and Bovada. These websites often promote “popular bets,” which are typically parlays that have low odds of winning.
These parlays usually fall in the range of betting $10 to win $150-$200, by no means a safe bet. However, since they are so-called “popular bets” and you see many others across the country placing them, many people (new bettors especially) are tempted to follow the crowd and throw some money down on it. But in the end, you lose money because they seldom cash out. For example, this past Saturday there was a “popular bet” that a reported 37,057 people placed money on—a college football parlay that had Colorado -23.5, Texas -29.5, Tennessee -5.5, and Washington -16.5. This parlay did not come close to cashing. Instead of winning by four scores or more, Colorado needed overtime to secure a victory over state rivals Colorado State University,
Another bet that was recently promoted was a same game parlay on the Vikings vs. Eagles on Thursday Night Football. It was Philadelphia moneyline, Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown to both score touchdowns, and under 49.5 total points scored. Three out of four of these bets did not hit. Admittedly, these are only two examples of these promoted bets. But if these are any indication, we would advise steering clear of promoted bets.
Many of you are familiar with the classic saying “the house always wins,” and it appears to hold true in sports gambling. Often, when the majority of the public all chooses the same bet, it seems like that bet is now jinxed and does not cash. It happens time and time again: the pre-match broadcasters all select the same teams, and that team ends up losing. This phenomenon of the heavily-bet teams gave birth to the idea of “fading”—taking the opposite side of public-supported bets. Fading is a tried and trusted strategy, but when you fade the public you are still betting on sports that receive a lot of attention. If you are looking to escape the realm of these high-attention sports entirely, here are some picks on sports that are flying under the radar at the moment.
Europa League: While the return of the Champions League will be attracting most soccer fans’ attention, the Europa League is quietly getting underway as well. Leverkusen and Brighton enter the tournament with massive momentum from their respective domestic leagues and look to start their championship campaign off strong with an opening round win at home. They are both decent favorites at -550 and -330, respectively, and are expecting easy wins today.
Canadian Football League: Toronto Argonauts (-455 moneyline, -10 point spread) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats: While the NFL and CFB may be occupying the majority of your betting slips, if you are looking to stray away from the beaten path look no further than the Canadian Football League. The Argonauts lead the East division in the CFL with an impressive record of 11-1 and look to move to 7-0 at home on the season when they play the Tiger-Cats for the fourth time. The Argonauts have won by margins of 18, 16, and 13 points so far and they seemed primed to make it 4 in a row.
Premier League: Arsenal (-140) vs. Tottenham, 9/24/23: Arsenal vs. Tottenham is a historic rivalry. The last time Tottenham won away at Arsenal was in November 2010 and the time before that was 1993. It is safe to say that history is against them, and so are we. Arsenal have won five of the last six home matches against them, including the past three, and move into this game with serious momentum. We believe Arsenal to win at -140 is great value.
WNBA: While many basketball fans are waiting for the NBA and college basketball to return, they could instead be watching the WNBA and placing money on the New York Liberty (+150) to win the WNBA playoffs. The Las Vegas Aces come into the playoffs as the defending champions and as the top overall seed. However, the Liberty have assembled a title-contending roster spearheaded by a Big Three of 2021: MVP Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, and Sabrina Ionescu and are looking to take the championship trophy back to the Big Apple. The Liberty have bested the Aces 3-1 in August, and will be confident in their win should this be the finals matchup.
Andrew Christie ’26 (andrewchristie@college.harvard.edu) greatly enjoys betting on less conventional sports and encourages you all to do the same.