It is that time of year when soccer has swung into full effect. Soccer fans like myself have started to become treated with Champions League and Europa League matches during the week and league matches on the weekends. Being a Liverpool fan, I generally only focus on the European tournaments as well as the Premier League, but I do not doubt there is money to be made in soccer leagues all around the world.
In terms of how I think the Premier League will end this season, I can say (without bias) that Manchester City and Liverpool will finish on top this year. Their lines to win the league suggest that, as they are -250 and +700, respectively, to win outright. City is not the same team without their masterful Kevin De Bruyne but nonetheless has looked strong. This is not the same team that you can bet at -2.5 goals against any team in Europe and feel comfortable, but I think manager Pep Guardiola is going to start to get the season rolling. For now, I think they are a tough team to bet on because they usually are at least two goal favorites but have looked somewhat shaky.
Liverpool on the other hand, has failed to make it to the champions league for the first time in the last few years, and after strengthening their squad I think they give City a push for the title this year.
When betting on the premier league, I think the best strategy is to take advantage of home and away fixtures. In American sports, home field advantage is important, but it’s not going to really impact the game that much. I would not change many bets in baseball if one team was home vs away. However, in soccer, it is extremely important. Recently, Liverpool went unbeaten at home over 68 games, (winning 81% of those games). That’s the second best streak in the Premier League of all time, and is around three and a half seasons where Liverpool didn’t lose at home.
Although the season has already begun, I think there are some futures that can still be taken advantage of in the Premier League. I think Brighton & Hove Albion to finish in the top six (-185) as well as Liverpool to finish in the top four (-300) are great value bets. Both teams are frontrunners to win the Europa League this season and have extremely strong squads. I would not be surprised if Brighton snuck into Champions League competitions, although they slightly faltered last week to AEK Athens. Roberto De Zerbi might be one of the best coaches in the Premier League, and I think he will continue to improve this team.
As for my picks for the Premier League Matchweek 7, they are as follows:
Everton (-180) vs Luton Town. Newly promoted Luton Town has not had a good start to the season by any means. They have one point out of the first six matches. Going away to Everton is one of the hardest matches in the entire league, and Everton is coming off a dominant away win against Brentford. I back Everton to win this match.
West Ham (-225) vs Sheffield United. After getting battered 8-0 this weekend at home to Newcastle United, this line might continue to move even more. However, I think West Ham is one of the strongest teams in the League this year under David Moyes, and I see them winning this match easily, but not quite enough to bet on the spread (-1,-1.5).
Wolves vs Man City Under Three Goals (-120). Man City has not been the same team without their star player. Wolves are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and City has not been in great form. I think City will come out of this game with a 1-0 or 2-0 win as they continue to rotate players in and out for the Premier League and the Champions League.
Tottenham vs Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals (-105). Two of the best teams in England will face off against each other this Saturday afternoon. One of the highly anticipated matches of the week, this game will be a great one. With two teams that are very attacking and have been conceding goals, I see this game to go over 3.5 goals. Last time the two teams played, the final score was 4-3, and I anticipate another high scoring game.
Unlike American football, soccer matches last about 1.5-2 hours and games that feel done and dusted can change drastically in a heartbeat. While not as popular, there is money to be made and beats to sweat on the other side of the pond.
Luke Wagner ’26 (lukewagner@college.harvard.edu) will urge everyone to throw three units on each of his Premier League picks this weekend.