Election time is upon us! This year, we have one for the ages: former President Donald Trump vs. Vice President Kamala Harris. As of Oct. 20, 2024, Kamala Harris has a slight edge in the most recent 538 polling data. However, on the betting stage, Donald Trump is far ahead in the lead with implied odds of around 60 percent on betting sites like Polymarket. It’s anyone’s race.
We like to think that the betting market is more accurate than the polls. According to Newsweek, the betting market has been around 77 percent accurate at betting the winner of the election in the last 35 years. Polls on the other hand have trouble remaining stagnant and have a lot to do with how the data is collected and interpreted. In 2016, the Huffington Post reported that Hillary Clinton had a whopping 98 percent chance of winning the election, and we all know how that turned out. In 2016, The New York Times reported that polls generally have around a six to seven percent margin of error on most polls, accounting for an error range of around 12 to 14 percent.
We are not statisticians by any means and often do not attribute much value to the polling markets. If you think about it, the election really only matters in the 7 to 10 swing states, so it’s not surprising that the polls often predict just 40 states correctly, because those are “locks.” For example, the odds for Massachusetts or California to be won by Kamala Harris currently sit around –15000 and –10000 respectively, and the odds for Trump to win Alabama and Kentucky are both –20000.
Like most Americans, we care about the swing states for this election: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. (For those of us who live in Massachusetts, where the vote doesn’t matter, still show up to your local firehouse to place your ballot on Nov. 5) In 2020, President Joe Biden took six of the seven swing states in his path to victory; however, this year, there is more uncertainty.
Starting with Michigan, my mom’s home state, the recent polling data places this state as dead even. Trump won Michigan in 2016, while Biden won in 2020. Bovada has Trump at a slight favorite at -130, while Harris is at even odds. For this one, I think we are going against the book. Considering that Michigan will likely continue to remain blue, the even line is advantageous with good value.
Looking at Nevada, another state that is currently dead even in the polling, we again are going to go against the book. The Republicans have not won Nevada since Bush won in 2004, and we do not see the trend shifting in 2024. Nevada at +105 feels like a great pick here, and we love to exploit lines where we see fit. A little parlay with Michigan and Nevada going blue gives +310 odds and feels like surefire picks for the Democrats.
On the other hand, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin feel too close to call. Bovada has Trump favored in both states, however, the lines for either state are not great so steer clear of any bets here. While betting on Harris would provide more value, we will look at other swing states that could guarantee results.
Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona are all currently being led by Trump in the most recent polling data as well as the betting lines. We agree that it is likely that they will fall to former President Trump, considering that Georgia sits at –210 for Trump, North Carolina sits at –220, and Arizona sits at –260. Since betting on these states to win independently does not make as much sense, we think a parlay here is the way to go. By combining all three states for the Republicans, you can get these odds for +200, which provides value for extra reward.
With that in mind, and our swing state predictions set, we believe that the 2024 Presidential Election winner will be former President Donald Trump. To be clear, we are not endorsing Trump by any means, but rather betting on who we think will win this election, and the betting odds agree with us. Currently, on Bovada, President Trump is –160. Although there is not much value to this bet, and gives former President Trump implied odds of 61 percent chance of winning, we would be remiss to not give a pick for the election. Adding Trump’s win to our previous parlay would give odds of +385, which are odds we do like. Below are our filled-out predictions for every state:
Luke Wagner ’26 (lukewagner@college.harvard.edu) is very excited about the election and thinks it will be one of the most tightly contested elections in recent history.