With the start of a new year, many of us are setting goals and making resolutions—so why not extend that mindset to sports betting? Whether you are a seasoned bettor or casual gambler, 2025 is the perfect time to refine your approach. It is time to embrace strategies that maximize value and leave behind the bad habits that drain your bank account. Below are some ins and outs of sports betting for the year ahead.
Let’s start with one of the biggest ‘ins’ for 2025: Alternate spreads. These are the unsung heroes of sports betting, offering more control over risk and reward. Instead of sticking with the standard line, you can adjust bets based on confidence—either playing it safe or aiming for a larger payout. A larger spread boosts returns if a team dominates, while a smaller one lowers risk in a potential blowout. The key is finding value where others overlook it.
Sports where this strategy truly shines include football and soccer. In soccer, every goal counts—not just for the win, but for goal differential, which can humiliate teams. Just think of Manchester United’s infamous 7-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield in 2023. Unlike basketball, where dominant teams sometimes coast and substitute players like Xavier Tillman once the game is practically decided, soccer teams typically play hard until the final whistle, as goal differential can determine whether a team wins or loses the league. This means that alternate lines often come down to the wire, making them a thrilling and potentially rewarding choice for bettors who do their research.
Never underestimate the underdog. While favorites may win more frequently, the true value in betting lies in backing those overlooked challengers. Underdogs are often undervalued due to public perception, giving sharp bettors a chance to capitalize. Over the last five NFL seasons, underdogs are 694–581-28, with a win percentage of 54.4 percent and an ROI of nearly five percent. Favorites, on the other hand, in the 2022 NFL season had an ROI of -3 percent. Researching matchups and understanding why an underdog might overperform is key to success. Maybe the public is overestimating a favorite’s recent form, or the underdog has matchup advantages that are overlooked; only time will tell.
Now, let’s dive into in-game picks: halftime bets and half-specific wagers can be some of the most thrilling bets out there. Betting on first-half or second-half outcomes is a great way to get an edge, as many teams or players overperform in different circumstances. Betting at halftime allows you to make live adjustments to your strategy based on what is happening in the game. A strong start by a team might fade, or a slow start might lead to a big comeback. Halftime plays are particularly rewarding if you are watching live and noticing trends. Think of them as your chance to correct course and capitalize on what you have learned.
Now that we’ve covered the ‘ins’ for the year ahead, it’s time to turn our attention to what we should be kicking to the curb as we bid farewell to 2024. Let’s be honest: chasing losses is one of the most common and costly pitfalls in sports betting. After a tough loss, it is tempting to place a bigger bet on the next game to try to bounce back. However, this emotional approach rarely ends well. It is smarter to pick a standard unit for your bets and stick to that unit in the face of losses. Chasing bets often leads to impulsive decisions and more losses. Instead, step back, analyze what went wrong, and focus on the next calculated play.
In that same vein, just because there are 12 games on the schedule does not mean you need to bet on all of them. Spreading yourself too thin dilutes your ability to make informed decisions. Focus on a few games you’ve researched thoroughly rather than trying to cover everything. Knowing a smaller number of sports or teams extremely well will give you an informed advantage over a midseason Tuesday night Raptors vs Jazz matchup. Betting fewer games with confidence beats betting every game with guesswork. Quality over quantity—always.
As much as people love drawing up a parlay, these bets provide some with the lowest expected value. Think of a 6-leg parlay of -110 bets, which are all roughly 50 percent of hitting. That means that the chance of the parlay hitting is roughly 1.5 percent. The payout on a bet like this would be approximately 4700 dollars for a 100-dollar bet, which might seem like a lot but has an estimated value of around -25 dollars. Parlays are flashy, but they are also a quick way to lose your bankroll. The odds of hitting a massive 6-leg parlay are slim, even if each bet seems like a lock. The house edge compounds with every added leg, making these bets a poor long-term strategy. Keep parlays small and strategic, and avoid using them as your primary betting approach. A 2- or 3-leg parlay can still be exciting without the astronomical risk of a 10-leg dream ticket.
Parlaying a bunch of favorites that you consider “locks” is not a great strategy. Favorites are often overpriced due to public bias, making betting on them without considering context a rookie mistake. Oddsmakers know how to set lines that attract money on favorites, even when the value is not there. For example, in the NFL playoffs, the Lions were massive favorites over the Commanders. 90 percent of the money line cash was on the Lions, and roughly 55 percent of the spread was on the Lions. Seeing this distribution, members of the Sportsbook flagged this and instantly bet on the Commanders, which turned very fruitful as both moneyline and spread hit. While underdogs hit less often than favorites, over time, their high returns can make up for their lack of frequency.
Sports betting is more than just placing wagers; it is about strategy, discipline, and finding joy in the process. While some members of the Indy Sportsbook might still hold on to certain habits—especially when it comes to parlays—we’re focused on leveling up our game in 2025. Several of us have already started developing models for different sports teams, aiming to beat the house edge and sharpen our strategies.
Remember, the goal is not to bet on everything or to win every time. It is to make smarter, more informed decisions (with positive EV), while having fun along the way.
Luke Wagner ’26 (lukewagner@college.harvard.edu) thinks that DraftKings has the best sports betting app user interface.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.