As the 2024 NFL season approaches, savvy bettors should look to futures for a chance to make an easy profit. We at the Indy Sportsbook have taken it upon ourselves to provide our readers with our favorite bets entering the 2024 NFL season. With a mix of high-risk, high-reward bets and safer player props, bettors of all bankrolls and risk tolerances will find the bet right for them.
First, player props. My favorite line right now is Patrick Mahomes over 33.5 passing touchdowns at -125 odds. Mahomes has hit this mark in three of his last four seasons, and while his 2023 season was his worst since 2019, the Chiefs offense just lacked the weapons to get the job done. Travis Kelce’s age was apparent, not to mention the abysmal core of Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. With Kadarius Toney gone, and the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, this line is simply too good to pass up.
Another solid pick in the quarterback prop market is Caleb Williams under 23.5 passing touchdowns. Williams had 72 touchdowns in his two years at USC, and the Bears have a solid receiver room in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. However, the Bears have had historically terrible quarterback performance: no quarterback in Bears history has ever thrown for 30 touchdowns in a single season. Justin Fields failed to break 20 touchdowns during his last two seasons in Chicago with similar weapons. Additionally, only five quarterbacks have ever passed for 24 touchdowns as a rookie: three of those five quarterbacks were Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Peyton Manning. We at the Indy Sportsbook just do not see Williams hitting this mark, especially in Chicago.
While the Bears may struggle this season in the NFC North, we’ve been eyeing their rival, the Packers, to win the division at +210 odds. The Detroit Lions are currently the slight favorites at +150, but the Indy Sportsbook thinks there’s much more value in the Packers’ line, and we think they should be the favorites. They took down Detroit at Ford Field on Thanksgiving last season, and in the weeks following had one of the most explosive offenses in the league, ranking third in EPA. Their defense was lackluster, but the addition of Boston College’s Jeff Hafley at the helm is promising. Before Boston College, Jeff Hafley led a formidable Ohio State defense that ranked second in total defense during his tenure, and he led the Eagles to a bowl win against #17/24 SMU last fall. We only see Jordan Love improving in the coming years, and think the Packers are primed to win the NFC North.
Jeff Hafley’s move to Green Bay is promising, but my favorite coaching change of the offseason was Mike Macdonald’s move to Seattle. It’s hard to believe that Pete Carroll, the same coach behind the legendary Legion of Boom, found his Seahawks finishing 28th in DVOA—which measures a team’s defensive performance adjusting for opponent strength—and last in EPA—a metric tracking the expected value in points per play—on third downs. DVOA and EPA Macdonald’s scheme was immensely successful in Baltimore, and we at the Indy Sportsbook expect the Seahawks to see similar results after adopting it. Moreover, the Ravens swept the NFC North in 2023, including Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Shanahan’s shifts have been giving defenses headaches around the league, but Macdonald’s scheme held the 49ers to just 19 points. Macdonald to win COTY at +1000 odds has great value—if he can fix the Seahawks’ defensive woes, the award is his to take.
For a safer bet this season, consider the Eagles to win the NFC East at +125 odds. Jalen Hurts was an MVP frontrunner for the majority of the season, but Philadelphia’s late-season slide cost him the trophy and the Eagles the division. Had the Eagles not lost five of their last six games, they would have beaten out the first-place Cowboys handily. It has been 20 years since a team won back-to-back NFC East titles, and with the addition of Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson, the Eagles easily have the best roster in their division. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean will bring much-needed help to their secondary, and Vic Fangio has led great defenses in years prior—take a look at his 2018 season with the Bears. You can expect the Eagles to take home the NFC East, and you should not worry about it being close, either.
This NFL season promises to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory, with new stars rising, seasoned veterans seeking redemption, and strategic coaching moves that could redefine team success. Best of luck should you tail our picks, and stay tuned for more bets throughout the season.
Jonah Karafiol ’26 (jonahkarafiol@college.harvard.edu) is the News Editor of the Independent and a diehard Dolphins fan.