First-year NFL quarterbacks may not don red lanyards or abruptly stop walking to take selfies and update their vlogs like some Harvard newbies we may know, but let me assure you that they do stand out. This year’s NFL season boasts three rookie quarterbacks who will make their inaugural starts in week 1: Bryce Young with the Carolina Panthers, CJ Stroud with the Houston Texans, and Anthony Richardson with the Indianapolis Colts. Past seasons have taught us that rookie quarterbacks have generally struggled to find their footing out of the gate. If you looked strictly at the aggregate win-loss record for rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last five seasons, you would find that they have a combined record of 80-139 during their premiere seasons, per Statmuse.
This low win percentage of roughly 37% can be attributed to a number of different factors. Firstly, the jump from college football to the NFL is enormous—imagine watching a class on double speed for an entire semester, not doing any of the optional problem sets, and then cramming a semester’s worth of dates, formulas, and quotes into a hectic night of studying before the biggest test of your life. This is essentially what rookie quarterbacks have to do every week to adjust from college to the pros, where they are exposed to the incredibly complex coverages and defensive schemes the NFL has to offer.
Additionally, many teams begin to rebuild their franchises with the selection of a rookie quarterback in the NFL draft. This usually results in these quarterbacks being thrust into situations where they are hard-pressed to succeed. Most franchises with top selections in the draft are marred by poor coaching, underperforming offensive lines, and poor skill position groups. This is all topped off by the incredible pressure and scrutiny these rookies are under to perform at high levels and elevate their franchise to new heights. When accounting for all of these factors, it becomes clear that growing pains are not just common for rookie quarterbacks but are more of a right of passage when stepping into one of the most complex and difficult positions sports have to offer.
As bettors, we need to account for these hardships and look to strike when the prices get juicy. Look to open by taking the team under on wins for the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts, which stand at 7.5 wins (-122), 6.5 (-142), and 6.5 (-104) respectively.
NFL teams operate very similar to Section at Harvard. Some teams are primed to succeed and have been preparing all summer to dominate their fellow compatriots. Using past performances, team additions, and this upcoming season’s schedule, I will try to point out a few teams that are looking to outperform their expectations for this upcoming season.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (-162): If the San Francisco 49ers were a section kid, they would have already audited the course and would be bringing in your TF’s laundry alongside the lesson plan for the day. The 49ers are as dependable as teams get in the NFL, reaching the NFC championship game in three of the last five seasons. With the Rams and Falcons preparing to enter a rebuild and cross their fingers in the Caleb Willams sweepstakes, I expect the 49ers to sweep their division again this year. Additionally, the Niners have been gifted the 7th easiest schedule by Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics and should be able to put teams away with their elite defensive unit and Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme consisting of elite skill position players. Feel confident betting on the 49ers to reach their over at 10.5 wins and win their division at (-165).
Pick: Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (-132): This win total really comes down to the Atlanta Falcons’ schedule this year and their ability to run the football. Belonging to the NFC South division, the Falcons will face off against the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers twice this year. These three teams were all within a game of .500 last season, and with the Buccaneers downgrading from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield and the Panthers working in Bryce Young, I could easily see the Falcons getting to five division wins this year.
Besides favorable division matchups, PFF has the Falcons ranked with the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. The addition of Jessie Bates, Bud Dupree, and Jeff Okudah should work to bolster the Falcon’s defense, but the addition of generational RB prospect Bijan Robinson playing behind Arthur Smith’s hyper-efficient run scheme makes me think this team will find ways to win football games, albeit in ugly fashion, all year. I’m playing the over of 8.5 wins and sprinkling a half unit each on the Falcons to win the division at +210 and Arthur Smith for Coach of the Year at +1600.
In short, make sure to take advantage of the NFL’s new kids and punch your ticket on the reliable 49ers and up-and-coming Falcons.
Ben Miller ’24 (benmiller@college.harvard.edu) writes Sports for the Independent.