In the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Florida Panthers dismantled what appeared to be an untouchable Boston Bruins team 4-3. Fans were stunned as the Bruins had achieved the best statistical season in NHL history and were undoubtedly favored to win the Cup. Following their improbable upset, the Panthers went on a run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. After defying all odds, the Panthers ended the season cupless, losing to the Las Vegas Golden Knights in the final. At last season’s finals, this now-favored underdog team secured the first Stanley Cup title in the Panthers’ franchise history.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are the end-all, be-all for hockey players. Teams will lay it all out on the line, battle to the death, and even have members playing with broken femurs; all in a drastic attempt to emerge victorious and have their names engraved upon the sacred Stanley Cup, securing a position in the infamy associated with being season champions.
If one had relied solely on statistics in 2023, theoretically speaking Florida would have had a near one in a million chance of defeating the Bruins in the first round alone, and all bets would have been lost. Hockey is undeniably a sport of skill, strategy, and caliber of play, all of which contribute to a team’s statistical advantage. However, there are aspects of the game that cannot be captured on a score sheet: mentality and momentum play, each contributing to a team’s success.
It’s a critical blunder to rely on statistics alone or discount a team for its initial standings, especially wildcards. If you have watched this sport long enough, you will know that teams can fall off the heater as quickly as they can get on. Changes are abrupt, and it takes a level of intuition to make a sound prediction of a given team’s odds. As teams enter game four of the first round, we at Indy Sportsbook have the pleasure of providing some insights into who may secure the Cup this time around.
Western Conference Champions: Colorado Avalanche (+1100)
The Western Conference appears to be in optimal shape ahead of this year’s playoffs. To set the record straight, Indy Sportsbook predicts that the Cup will have to travel this year, evidently falling into the hands of a Western Conference team. Overall, the Western Conference has seen stronger consistency in its play this season. It appears more likely to bring home the cup than any Eastern Conference team, regardless of who advances to represent the Western Conference in the finals.
The Winnipeg Jets led the NHL this season with 56 wins, 116 points, and a 0.707 p%, claiming the President’s Trophy. In unpredictable playoff fashion, Winnipeg faced an unexpected 7-2 upset in game three of their series against the St. Louis Blues on April 24. Still, we anticipate that Winnipeg will easily defeat St. Louis in the first round and advance to the semifinals. Their overall dominance this season offensively and defensively, with the undeniable contributions of two-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in the pipes, makes them a strong contender for the Cup this season.
The Colorado Avalanche, our choice for the Western Conference title, faces a more challenging matchup in the first round, at least predictions-wise.
The Avalanche currently sits at a one-game deficit against the Dallas Stars, who lead 3-2 in the series. Both teams had a strong regular season, earning standings within the top three of their division and holding similar statistics. Despite being obliterated in game 5, we predict that the Avalanche will overcome this deficit and emerge victorious, given they beat Dallas 2-1 overall in regular season games and have consistently outplayed the Stars this far in the series winning the first match of the series 5-1; all subsequent games have been decided in OT. With a stacked roster decorated by offensive threats like Nathan Mackinnon and Logan O’Connor, rounded out with defensive players like Cale Makar, the Avs pose a substantial threat to Winnipeg in the second round of the playoffs.
Nothing is impossible during playoff hockey. The other half of the Western Conference is not irrelevant, consisting of additional statistically sound teams and the supernaturally talented Connor McDavid. However, we find it highly unlikely that these teams will advance to the finals and predict that the Western Conference will boil down to a second-round series between Winnipeg and Colorado to determine who will represent the division in the finals.
Eastern Conference Champions: Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000)
If they can break their age-old playoff curse and make it past the first round, this might be the year that loyal-to-a-fault Toronto Maple Leafs fans finally get their run at the Stanley Cup. Five Canadian teams represent the nation in the playoffs this year, making fans optimistic that Canada’s 32-year Stanley Cup drought will soon come to an end, with Montreal being the last team to emerge victorious in 1993. With a 52-26-4 record and 108 points in the regular season, things are looking up, particularly for Toronto hockey fans!
Thus far, the Leafs are dog-walking the Ottawa Senators, winning the first three games consecutively to claim their 3-2 record in the series. Given they have a two-game buffer to secure a position in the second round, all odds lie with the Maple Leafs. We predict that the Florida Panthers will emerge victorious over Tampa Bay in the second round. Florida currently trails Tampa 2-1, but with Matthew Tkachuk back in the lineup, a comeback seems more plausible by the day. As a highly spirited player, Tkachuk is not just a fan favorite but largely dictates the energy of the Florida Panthers’ offense on the ice.
With New Jersey’s lines riddled with injury and both Hughes brothers sidelined, their slim odds were deflated before being eliminated in game 5 by the Carolina Hurricanes. The Capitals have better odds than the Canadiens to emerge from the first round given their 3-1 record in the series. However, it was our humble opinion at the Sportsbook that this would be a more equal matchup given the teams’ momentum heading into the playoffs. Alex Ovechkin recently broke Wayne Gretzky’s all-time scoring record for the Capitals. Although it may appear all hope is lost for Habs fans, if any wildcard could stun the league, our bet is on the Canadiens with their boisterous fanbase and history of legendary comebacks. This season alone, the Habs went from the bottom of the conference to securing a wildcard to the playoffs with rookies like Lane Hutson making waves early in their NHL careers.
Finally, hockey fans or not, we as Harvard students should all be tuning in to support the alumni competing in the playoffs this year: Colin Blackwell ’16 (Dallas Stars #15), Jimmy Vesey ’16 (Colorado Avalanche #26), Jack Drury ’20 (Colorado Avalanche #18), and Alex Laferriere who left Harvard to join the NHL in 2023 (Los Angeles Kings #18).
Megan Legault ’28 (mlegault@college.harvard.edu) tried her best to remain unbiased in this article despite her overwhelming desire for the Montreal Canadiens to pull off a miracle in the playoffs.