“To do anything at a high level, it has to be total obsession,” legendary Irish boxer Conor McGregor once said. For this reason, we at the Indy Sportsbook have spent over 300 hours concocting a UFC parlay that will retire us from this rat race of life by the end of next week. While we have no money on this expert-level analysis, we wouldn’t have spent this much time if we didn’t think our predictions were both purely entertaining and soon-to-be accurate.
Not many things in life beat watching two people fight inside an octagon cage for their next paycheck. Having some money on the line adds excitement to the game. Having a lot of money on the line puts you through otherworldly highs and lows, a feeling that no drugs can match.
Through watching previous fights, Instagram reel edits of previous fights, and DMing our soon-to-be victorious fighters motivational messages, we think we’ve set ourselves up for success this week. We have assembled one of the sharpest, most exciting, and analytical picks for UFC 307. Although we cannot guarantee anything to hit, we love these bets more than Felipe’s Super Burrito.
Kevin Holland (-155) vs Roman Dolidze
To start the first leg of the parlay, we love Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland. Holland is 31 years old with a 26-11-0 record in the UFC. He’s a fundamental striker and is showing real improvement with his grappling skills. When he’s in the right mode, he is an exciting fighter to watch. He floats around the octagon and lands punches with accuracy. He won his last fight four months ago via armbar submission. His opponent, Roman Polidze, also known as “The Caucasian,” is the better grappler; however, there’s much left to be desired when it comes to his striking. If Holland can use his reach to keep his distance and stay off the ground, we think this is a safe bet.
Kayla Harrison (-650)
Next, we turn our attention to Kayla Harrison. Harrison is a rising star in the UFC, and this fight is a meatball for Kayla Harrison, likely to set her up with a title fight next. She is a two time gold medalist in Judo: the first American to achieve this feat. She won her last fight in a dominant fashion, ending with a rear naked choke for the submission. Her opponent, Ketlen Vieirais, is also a judo fighter with a 14-3 record. Vieira will need a miracle to beat Harrison at her own game.
Jose Aldo (+140)
Adding an underdog into the parlay, no one other than Jose Aldo would be our pick. Jose Aldo is probably the greatest featherweight fighter of all time. Known for his devastating leg kicks and powerful punches, he defended his 145 pound belt nine times between the WEC and the UFC. After losing the championship to Conor McGregor in UFC 194, he immediately won it back six months later at UFC 200. Following losses to featherweight champions Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, he dropped down to bantamweight and has since gone 4-3. His most recent win back on May 4th came as a +140 underdog in his home city of Rio de Janeiro. In that fight, Aldo showed that he still has what it takes to compete with the younger fighters, winning by unanimous decision against 30-year-old Jonathan Martinez, a rising American star. Aldo is still a top tier striker and a rounded fighter with the movement, power, and experience to take down his 31-year-old opponent Mario Bautista. Bautista has shown himself to be a dangerous grappler, but only has one win in his past six fights against a ranked opponent. If Aldo can strike like he did in his last fight and continue to defend from the takedown, he will definitely add another underdog win to his illustrious career.
Raquel Pennington (-175)
Following those fights, the main co-event features Pennington defending her bantamweight title against an opponent fresh off a two year hiatus. Juliana Peña’s last fight defending her title two years ago ended in a decided loss. Pennington is on a six fight win streak and has kept a cool head in the octagon. She’s also been training in Colorado at a similar elevation to Salt Lake City, whereas Peña may have to adjust to a change in altitude, further testing her endurance. Raquel Pennington on the money line is the easy pick for this one.
Khalil Roundtree Jr. (+380)
To cap off the Sportsbook’s parlay, we have a more unconventional pick. For the main event, Alex Perieira defends his title from Khalil Roundtree. The challenger is on a five fight win streak, and although his opponents have not cracked the top 10, he has shown power, speed and agility in his recent fights. Three of his past four wins ended in a KO, three of them in round two or earlier. With Peiriera’s tendency to keep his hands a bit low, Roundtree could be a dangerous opponent for him; we think so much more than the odds would suggest. This will also be Pereira’s fourth title fight in the past year, which is certain to have taken a toll on the 37 year-old striker. We wouldn’t bet the house against Pereira, but there is potentially big money to be made betting against the grain on this one.
If this parlay cashes, your $100 will turn into roughly $3,300. This 33xer would be equivalent to buying the S&P 500 index in 1989. Instead of affording four thirty racks of Bud Light, you will now be able to afford 132 thirty racks. That’s 3,960 cans of Bud Light. Scared money don’t make money.
If this doesn’t work out, we have another Conor McGregor quote to solace us as we wipe away our tears. “We win some, we lose some. I will never shy away from defeat.” At the end of the day, it’s clear these predictions only build us up to be better, stronger, and smarter, and that’s all you can really ask for.
Andrew Morrissey ’26 (ajmorrissey@college.harvard.edu) and Denny Gulia Janovski ’27 (dguliajanovski@college.harvard.edu) write Sports for the Independent.