As the NBA playoffs move into the conference semifinals, we at the Independent recommend you save money on tickets at your hometown arena and opt instead for a comfortable couch near the TV. For the first time in league history, all four of the visiting teams stole Game 1—an East-to-West upset that humbled three 60-win heavyweights: the Oklahoma City Thunder (#1 in the Western Conference), the Cleveland Cavaliers (#1 in the Eastern Conference), and the Boston Celtics (#2 in the Eastern Conference).
Game 2s wrap this week, but this weekend is the time to tune in and see where the series momentum will go. Of the 463 playoff series in which a team led 2-0, that team went on to win the series 92.7% of the time. In best-of-seven series that are tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 80% of the time. All this to say that by Sunday, we’ll have a decent sense of Conference Finals matchups. For now, here are our weekend picks:
Game 3: Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers’ squad has quickly taken a two-game lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers, despite strong shooting performances by Donovan Mitchell. Playoff Pacers might be back and gunning for another shot at the Celtics. The Pacers are red-hot and don’t seem to be slowing down. In Game 1, all five starters scored in double figures. Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard have been hyper-efficient from the field and behind the arc.
In Game 2, the Pacers rallied back from a 20-point deficit on the back of Haliburton and his game-sealing three. Don’t expect the Cavs to go down easy, but if Donovan Mitchell’s dominant 33 points and subsequent 48 points couldn’t secure a single win, it will be difficult to stall a young, streaky Indiana team that had a taste of championship basketball in 2024. The Pacers have likely learned from last year’s Game 3 losses in the first and second rounds and will look to forge ahead at home.
Game 3: Oklahoma City Thunder
Out West, the unconventional start to the second round has stalled or shaken some of the league’s most celebrated storylines. OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the runaway favorite for the 2024-25 MVP, against the reigning MVP, Denver’s Nikola Jokić, has been the matchup to watch. On Monday, the Serbian reasserted his dominance with a 42-point, 22-rebound masterclass—the first 40-20 playoff line since Shaq in 2001—again reminding fans why he’s the three-time former MVP.
The Nuggets are once again looking to Nikola Jokić to lead them to a finals appearance. If he didn’t have enough on his shoulders, they’ve also left him to functionally fill a coaching role after firing head coach Mike Malone right before the playoffs. While Jokić has proven capable thus far, it’s likely unsustainable for three consecutive games.
By Game 3, expect the Thunder to make some defensive adjustments, working to keep Chet Holmgren out of foul trouble and focused on the big man. Jokić will lean on Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, who will face Lu Dort’s stifling on-ball defense. When Jokić isn’t running the offense, OKC will have an easier time pushing the pace and getting SGA baskets in transition.
Game 3: Boston Celtics
In the East, the reigning champions, the Boston Celtics, lost Game 1 to a scrappy New York Knicks who willed a 20-point comeback through the fourth quarter and into overtime. Boston, heavily favored to win it all and known for their elite three-point shooting, bricked a franchise record of 45 threes.
With their high-volume perimeter shooting, two off nights are in the budget. Despite breaking record lows, the Celtics still held a comfortable lead over the Knicks through three quarters. Boston, which lost just one game in the first and second rounds last year and went 4-0 against New York in the regular season this year, is likely unfazed. Despite their loss in Game 2, have faith in the reigning NBA Champions.
As the series stretches, trust Boston’s deep bench to carry them over the hump and keep up the energy. Even if the shooting percentages don’t immediately improve, expect the Celtics’ physicality to pick up and for Joe Mazulla to run more systems and less isolation ball through Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum. If Kristaps Porzingis can get open looks and some momentum, the Knicks’ defense will have a handful in Game 3.
Game 3: Golden State Warriors
Anthony Edwards will need to pick up the offensive slack for Minnesota if he wants to resume his systematic dethroning of the biggest names in basketball: Kevin Durant, Lebron James, and now potentially Steph Curry. The newly nick-named “King-Slayer” started slow against the Golden State Warriors, who lost Curry to a strained hamstring in the first half.
The Warriors proved surprisingly robust even without their shooting leader for most of Game 1. Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green held their own offensively after Curry’s hamstring strain. Steve Kerr’s game plan was flawless, and the Warriors proved themselves as a lockdown defensive force, holding a high-octane Minnesota offense to just 88 points. If the Warriors can maintain the pressure and get Curry back healthy, Game 3 is in their favor.
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As the NBA playoffs intensify with Game 3s on the horizon, the next few days will offer crucial insights into which teams are poised to advance to the conference finals. With several series at a pivotal 1-1 tie, each game could shift momentum as the winner of Game 3 often takes control of the series. Whether it’s the young Pacers continuing their hot streak or Jokić’s efforts to keep the Nuggets afloat, one thing is certain: the road to the NBA Finals is as unpredictable and thrilling as ever.
Max Surprenant ’26 (msurprenant@college.harvard.edu) writes Sports for the Harvard Independent.