Cooper: If you’re like us, and have little to no real gambling insight, betting on your favorite team can even the odds—figuratively speaking. There are many strategic advantages to consistently doing so, as fervent supporters that watch every game simply know more than the neutrals. When you’ve seen hundreds of Brady games, you know that an early interception at home against the Bills is not cause for serious concern, or that a 2nd quarter three-and-out in Miami spells doom. Familiarity with a team and its roster gives you an edge exclusive to the die-hards.
In addition to a better sense of any one outcome, consistently betting on the same team utilizes the law of large numbers, spreading the risk across an entire season as opposed to a single game. But that strategy is only profitable with at least somewhat successful teams, or at least teams who consistently outperform the expected spread—do not bet on the Bears’ entire season. While betting on your favorite team can give you a 6th sense of outcome, and a winning season can be very profitable, the true benefit of riding with your team is an emotional one.
It’s depressing—even cowardly—to doubt your team and miss out on profiting from their success. Americans love to identify with their teams. As seen by fans using the collective pronoun “we” when discussing a roster of millionaires they’ve never met, it is human nature to want to be a part of something. A beloved team, a “we,” means much more to the average human than even their own political party. By betting, people literally invest in their team, deepening the bond to an illogical yet inspiring (i.e. American) level. With skin in the game, “we” can enjoy the tangible sweetness of victory or share the burden of the agony of defeat.
Keep in mind this is terrible advice if your only aim is to make money. But if you’re like us, Vegas knows more than you about every team—except maybe the team that you’ve watched your entire life. The rewards of betting on your team, while hopefully also financial, are the feelings of loyalty and unity: reasons why people support teams in the first place. Unless you’re a career gambler who knows something that Vegas and the Indy Sportsbook don’t, you will be happier winning and losing with your squad, together, than with those random, ever-fickle, Eastern European basketball leagues.
Buckley: Betting on your own team to win is a natural temptation as a sports fan. You’re already rooting for a specific outcome, so why not attach some money to it? However, therein lies the problem. Gambling on games you are already invested in is an emotionally redundant task that only opens you up to more heartbreak. Your team’s performance will always be the determining factor in how you feel about the game, so risking money to feel marginally more happy with a win is just not worth it. Do not let an already-devastating playoff exit cost you your late-night Jefe’s runs as well.
In addition to the pointlessness of it, betting on the teams you love can cloud your judgment. As we’ve said many times in this column, we’re not that good at this. However, our general sports knowledge and intuition at least leaves us with a fighting chance each week. That can all go away when we’ve convinced ourselves that Mac Jones can hang with Josh Allen for four quarters. We watch our own teams enough to think we know them better than anyone, only to find out that we should have been paying attention to the other team too.
If you take this advice into account but still cannot watch a game without betting on it, there is one truly radical option: betting against your team. Many people may call this heresy, but the argument here is sound. View this strategy as a kind of emotional hedge. If your team wins, you will have gotten the result you wanted and likely will not care as much about your bet. If they lose, you now have a financial windfall to help cushion the blow. If this seems a little too cold and calculating, let this serve as a reminder that gambling always is.
The highs and lows of sports fandom are undoubtedly some of the purest emotions one can experience. The highs and lows of sports gambling are not. The best types of wagering are done in the name of enjoyment or financial gain, and betting on your favorite team is conducive to neither of these. Your interest in the game is firmly established, and any bet you place will inevitably be skewed by hometown bias. Of course, following this rule is not a guarantee you will actually make money elsewhere, but it’s a good place to start.
Declan Buckley ’24 (declanbuckley@college.harvard.edu) and McGavock Cooper ’24 (mcgavockcooper@college.harvard.edu) are not responsible for catastrophic losses from betting on the Bears.