The upcoming midterm elections on November 8th have generated increasing national buzz around the increasing extremism of conservative politics and the progressive pivot to issues in the culture war. Nonpartisan pollsters predict that Republicans are favored to win the House, while the Senate is expected to be extremely close. At the Indy, we wanted to look further into several races, and offer predictions in the form of moneyline odds. Welcome to The President Predicts.
A primer on moneyline wagers:
The number presented next to each candidate, when positive, represents your potential payout if you bet $100. If the number is negative, it represents the amount you would need to bet to earn $100. Let’s take the following example:
1948 Presidential Election
Harry S. Truman (D, Incumbent) v. Thomas E. Dewey (R)
Our Odds: Truman +200, Dewey -230
Let’s say you bet $100 on the winner. If Dewey beats Truman, you would earn a profit of $43.48. If instead Truman beat Dewey, you would earn a profit of $200. If you bet wrong, you lose your money.
We’d like to put our money where our mouth is and offer you the chance to bet on the odds listed below by sending an email to president@harvardindependent.com. For each race we will supply the line given by 538 (traditional political polls) and PredictIt (the most liquid political betting market). Now let’s get to our 2022 picks in this edition of: The President Predicts!
Our top-view perspective:
In general we believe the economic environment has been underweighted by most pundits and pollsters. This cycle will be dominated by reaction to inflation and worsening prospects for the middle class. Following a decades-old trend of the party in power taking the brunt of the blame for a sluggish economy, culture war politics will take a backseat to the price of gas at the pump. This trend will have a chilling effect on Democrats, who have poured ad dollars and campaign resources into anti-facist rhetoric. Meanwhile Republicans have tied their opponents to high inflation, which they’ve successfully linked in the public’s eye to Biden’s policies. We also think the younger voter turnout will be lower than expected given increasing apathy across youth with moderate ideologies and increasing frustration with inaction across more progressive ideologies. Early voting data so far supports this idea. Across our selected races you will see that perspective reflected in our odds adjustment.
The Races:
We’ve selected 3 Senate races and 1 House race which we believe are being mis-polled (mispriced) by pollsters (oddsmakers).
Pennsylvania Senate Race
John Fetterman MPP ‘99 (D) vs Mehmet Oz ‘82 (R)
538 Odds: Fetterman -100, Oz +100, PredictIt Odds: Oz -203, Fetterman +163
Our Odds: Oz -115, Fetterman +115
In Pennsylvania a Senate seat has opened up following the decision by two-term senator Patrick Toomey ‘84 (R) to not seek re-election. The Republican nominee is Mehmet Oz, a former surgeon who hosted his enormously popular eponymous TV show about health and medicine for 13 seasons. The Democratic nominee is John Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor of the state who served as mayor of Braddock for 13 years.
Oz supports restricting access to abortion with some exceptions and supports same-sex marriage. Oz has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Fetterman supports criminal justice reform, banning anti-LGBTQ discrimination, and legalizing marijuana. While Fetterman held a substantial lead in most polls for the majority of the race, concerns about his health following a stroke has led to a close race going into these final weeks. As such we predict the line moving towards Oz.
Georgia Senate Race
Herschel Walker (R) v. Raphael Warnock (D, Incumbent)
538 Odds: Warnock -117, Walker +117, PredictIt Odds: Walker -170, Warnock +150
Our Odds: Warnock –150, Walker +150
In Georgia incumbent senator Raphael Warnock won the hotly contested 2021 special election in a state whose senators have been largely Republican since the early 2000’s. Warnock, a former pastor, helped the Democrats achieve a slim majority in the Senate. Walker is a former professional football player who enjoys enormous popularity in Georgia from his collegiate career at the University of Georgia.
Walker has come under fire for his support of no-exception abortion bans in the wake of allegations that he fathered multiple children out of wedlock. Despite Walker’s controversies, his popularity has remained robust and most polls indicate a dead heat going into election day. We predict that the voters will prioritize stability and Walker’s scandals will prove to be an insurmountable issue.
Arizona Senate Race
Blake Masters (R) v. Mark Kelly (D, Incumbent)
538 Odds: Kelly -285, Masters +285, PredictIt Odds: Masters -127, Kelly +104
Our Odds: Kelly –150, Masters +150
Arizona is a politically significant state for both parties with competitive races that could make the difference to each party’s national agenda. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and US Navy captain, won the seat in a special election in 2020. His challenger is Blake Masters, a venture capitalist often referred to as the protégé of tech billionaire Peter Thiel. Thiel has contributed considerable amounts to political causes and candidates including Donald Trump, and has donated at least $15 million to Masters’ candidacy so far. This is believed to be the largest sum ever spent on a race from a single source.
While Masters has closed the gap significantly in a race against an incumbent, polls still place him at a significant deficit going into these final weeks. Kelly is a formidable opponent who has built a fundraising juggernaut and consolidated Democratic support nationally. Masters has also recently flip-flopped on his stance on abortion, easing calls for a nationwide ban back to calls for banning late-term abortions. We predict that Kelly remains a favorite but Masters may be able to eke out a narrow path to victory in this home stretch.
Rhode Island’s 2nd District
Allan Fung (R) v. Seth Magaziner (D)
538 Odds: Magaziner -113, Fung +113, Our Odds: Fung -125, Magaziner +125
Rhode Island’s 2nd District has been held by a Democrat since 1991. The Democratic nominee is Seth Magaziner, the current General Treasurer. His opponent in the race is Allan Fung who served as the mayor of Cranston (Rhode Island’s second largest city) for over a decade. A large part of what makes this race a draw is Fung’s perception as a moderate and popularity among both independents and Democrats.
All throughout New England, the Democratic midterm playbook has involved tying Republican candidates to Donald Trump and equating a vote for the candidate as a vote for Trump’s agenda. This strategy is looking like it’ll prove successful in the races for Massachusetts governor or New Hampshire’s Senate race, but Fung doesn’t fit cleanly into the bogeyman archetype. Fung’s long career in local government, general likeability, and relatively centrist views have buoyed his candidacy. Fung’s major focus on the campaign trail has been to talk about runaway inflation, while Magaziner has tried to keep the focus on abortion rights (Fung has said he does not support a national ban). With polls coming down to the wire, we predict the voters will resonate with Fung’s messaging on inflation and we’ll see the seat flip.
Matthew Shum ’24 (mshum@college.harvard.edu) and Noah Tavares ’24 (noahtavares@college.harvard.edu) are not responsible for the outcome of these races.